Obama Convention Bounce!

by iohs2008, Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:05:23 PM EST

This diary will have to be brief, but it looks like thezzyzx's hopes are coming to fruition. Obama has received, so far, a very healthy bounce, thereby burrying the main stream media meme of a party divided

[editor's note, by iohs2008]The theory that a convention bounce will help quash the disunity meme was originally posted here by thezzyzx. Also, did anyone just hear a puma go curl up in the corner and die?


Tags: obama, democratic convention, poll (all tags)

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While I don't much like tracking polls (2.00 / 2)

I do think it shows some positive movement.  Good.

Resume breathing, people.


by Reaper0Bot0 on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:06:51 PM EST

What's really nice about this (2.00 / 1)

is that Gallup says that because of the way they are collecting data, this finding reflects only Michelle Obama's and Hillary Clinton's nights.  We haven't seen the response to Biden's and Bill Clinton's speeches.  And, of course, there's the little matter of our nominee's acceptance speech tonight that will show up in the data on Saturday.


That's it, baby; let's go win this election!
by Beltway Dem on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:36:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Convention Bounce! (2.00 / 2)

Jesus Christ. Normally, these don't mean much, but that's an average of three days, so that would indicate Hillary's speech gave him something on the level of a 15 point bounce in the polls. With as strong of a night as we had last night, the Republicans might be a lot closer to their estimation of the bounce than they had hoped. This explains a lot of the jitters we seem to be getting from the GOP today. They've got internal polling, and it scared the shit out of them.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:09:22 PM EST

Re: Obama Convention Bounce! (none / 0)

Just curious what you see as jitters from the Republicans. I haven't had much of a chance to pay attention to the media today.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 02:41:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Convention Bounce! (none / 0)

First, they were going to announce the VP after the convention. Then they were going to announce on Friday morning. Now they're announcing a leak tonight. Actually ANNOUNCING the leak ahead of time. Not overtly, but it's one of the most open secrets ever. And McCain is putting an ad before Obama's speech. A nice ad, but still. I know they are bastards, but this is something more than that. Finally, just the VP announcement itself. One second he says he has it, then an hour later, he's undecided. Perhaps Hutchison turned him down.

Either way, these are not signs of a campaign that feels in control.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 06:35:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Convention Bounce! (none / 0)

for once I hope the Mcsame campaign was right about their bounce predictions for obama


President-elect Barack Obama spent the day thanking the people who helped him win the election. Obama's first phone call was to Sarah Palin.
by wellinformed on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 03:08:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I sure wish (2.00 / 1)

Nader would just come out and support Obama. That would give him  the extra 2 plus percent to move above 50%.


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:12:26 PM EST

Re: I sure wish (none / 0)

When has Nader ever been gracious like that?


by rfahey22 on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:13:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I sure wish (none / 0)

No no no. About 90% of the progressive Democrats are backing Obama. Nader's base right now consists of a large number of PUMAs and Hillary diehards. If he drops out, they move to McCain.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:14:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I sure wish (none / 0)

And before I get crap about that 90% figure, I refer you to the actual post. That's a gigantic one day movement for a tracking poll. And it damn sure didn't come from Republicans.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:16:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nader had his shot (none / 0)

He probably could have even have had a spot in the Obama administration, but he took offense at something and decided to be a petulant child about it.

I've talked to Nader supporters.  They're like PUMAs on crack.


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:16:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Convention Bounce! (2.00 / 1)

Providing tonight delivers I think the Ds have shown a great sense of pacing this convention. each day/night has been better than the other, which is what you want. Sat or Sun should be the peak of the bounce.


by notedgeways on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:14:37 PM EST

Re: Obama Convention Bounce! (2.00 / 1)

It's so weird having this two day delay. It's like that Mr. Show sketch, the Pre-Taped Call-In Show.

Speaking of which, here it is, and if you've never seen it, I highly recommend you take five minutes to do so.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:18:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Convention Bounce! (none / 0)

This is one of my favorite comedy sketches of all time.  Mr. Show was in a league of its own.


by BlueInBoston on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 02:57:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Convention Bounce! (none / 0)

I love it when my prediction is correct.


But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
by thezzyzx on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:19:00 PM EST

Correction (2.00 / 1)

Before you posted, I made the correction that it was you who, as far as I can tell, first postulated this theory. I have no updated the diary to a link with your posting.


I attended PUMACon '08!!!
by iohs2008 on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:21:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Correction (none / 0)

Why thanks :)


But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
by thezzyzx on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:33:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Convention Bounce! (none / 0)

I am STILL ignoring the polls.

I have a feeling, since Monday begins the

"HE AIN'T READY" festival in Minn, I expect those numbers to slow down....


On Nov 4th, we elected "the smart guy" and the world celebrated!
by WashStateBlue on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:21:04 PM EST

Re: Obama Convention Bounce! (none / 0)

Oh yeah, they'll get their chance too, but it's still good to see.

Basically (barring a disaster tonight), we performed a very difficult task successfully.  Now its their turn.  Now they have to walk a very fine line with a hurricane to deal with on top of that.  


But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
by thezzyzx on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:39:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Convention Bounce! (2.00 / 1)

Nono. Now WE, the Democrats, must launch an offensive that lasts until the first debate. We have to get John McCain REALLY mad. As mad as he got with that Time interview.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:41:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Convention Bounce! (none / 0)

Part of what makes their task difficult is that I sure hope we'll be prodding.


But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
by thezzyzx on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 03:00:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Convention Bounce! (none / 0)

The irony of a hurricane hitting their convention would be just too sweet. Not that I want to anyone to get hurt, but.....


by venician on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:57:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Or worse (none / 0)

You know, they haven't fixed the pumps down in New Orleans. It's as vulnerable as ever.


I attended PUMACon '08!!!
by iohs2008 on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 03:47:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Convention Bounce! (none / 0)

Especially since they had Right Wing Ministers asking God to rain on Obama tonight...

But, I agree, I wouldn't wish a hurricane on anyone, even the Republic convention.

However, if God wants to rain a few Frogs down, or boil a few lakes near the Republics pony show, that sure would be cool!


On Nov 4th, we elected "the smart guy" and the world celebrated!
by WashStateBlue on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 04:42:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not exactly hurricane country (none / 0)

Minnesota has never been hit by a hurricane.  We sensibly built our city in the middle of the continent in a geologically stable area with fertile soil, plenty of water, and no dangerous mountains.

All we have to deal with are blizzards, rare tornados, and the flooding of our great rivers about once every few years.  These problems we handle with a fair amount of resigned fatalism.  We are largely Democrats, or rather, Democrat-Farmer-Labor associates.  Those Minnesotans who are Republicans tend to remember when "Republican" meant frugal, fiscal conservatism and honest government rather than wasteful, corporate welfare and abdication of responsibility.

But no, the hurricane wouldn't hit the RNCC, but it could hit the southern coastline and make them all look like the complacent oafs they are.


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 04:45:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Repub Convention Ratings Will Stink (none / 0)

You heard it here--they will average about 60-70% of the democratic convention ratings on a nightly basis.

If folks ain't watching, they ain't being converted.

There will be some bounce for McCain coming out, but probably only about half of what Obama gets.


by Davidsfr on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 02:07:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sure (none / 0)

but if we get enough breathing room to come out of this with a net gain, that's great.

Also, I think we need to have a rapid reponse team in St. Paul ready to go, keeping the message alive from Denver. We need Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton (if he's up to it), Janet Napolitano, John Kerry, Joe Biden, out there counterattacking and keeping McCain's bounce minimal.

The other thing is coverage and viewership. Is anyone really interested in the GOP convention? I think the possibility of how yesterday was going to go, the drama, got people interested in this convention, the GOP convention...snore...unless Ron Paul attempts a coup.

AND...half the convention, McCain is going to be fighting Hurricane Gustav for headlines.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 02:36:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Convention Bounce! (2.00 / 1)

Nice, wait till the Bill effect shows up in the poll tomorrow. Then the Gore, Obama capper.

I didn't expect Clinton's speech to have a big effect, until I heard it.


by souvarine on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:23:49 PM EST

I've maligned Bill much (none / 0)

I blamed him for 1994 and 2000.

But make no mistake, he is on our team and fighting hard for us. I hope he campaigns with Obama, I really do.

It was an amazing speech.

And so was John Kerry's. Geez. If only he'd campaigned like that in 2004...


I attended PUMACon '08!!!
by iohs2008 on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 03:49:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Love it. (none / 0)

This starts my afternoon off right.


Even John McCain lusts after teh engels.
by sricki on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:26:46 PM EST

I still dont believe ib "bouces" (none / 0)

I think they were a real happening before the media explosion and improvements in polling.  Now everything is so saturated that I truly believe most "bounce" stories are complete media creations.  It is the same storyline everytime, group x says group y should get a 15 point bounce(from what I have seen, damn near impossible) and group why says that expect a 4 to 5 point bounce, and this the game continues.

I truly believe it is a media driven storyline at this point.


"Is there no keeping with class in whom we mingle with anymore?"
by Brandon on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:36:52 PM EST

sweet lord that is some poor spelling. n/t (none / 0)


"Is there no keeping with class in whom we mingle with anymore?"
by Brandon on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:37:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

In this instance, it doesn't matter if it's real (none / 0)

Taking a page from the GOP play book, what matters is perception.

As the original poster of the theory said, the perception of a bounce quashes the narrative of a party divided.


I attended PUMACon '08!!!
by iohs2008 on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 03:51:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Convention Bounce! (none / 0)

What about Ras? No bounce there?


I will wear my heart upon my sleeve For daws to peck at
by Iago on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:41:20 PM EST

Re: Obama Convention Bounce! (2.00 / 1)

 It will be interesting to see if the pro republican Rasmussen tracking poll shows any kind of bounce tomorrow. So far they are still insisting the race is dead even at 47. Of course we all still remember that Rasmussen was the pollster that had bush 7 points ahead of Gore on election day, 2000.


The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations. -- David Friedman
by pollbuster on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:46:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama Up by 1 in Ras w/out leaners (none / 0)

He had been one point behind a few days ago. Rasmussen never has shown the same kind of dramatic movement other polls have shown after conventions, debates, etc. Because he weights by party and applies a likely voter screen, his results tend to be steadier, and often do skew republican, but not by a lot.

I think Ras will show at least a 5-point lead for Obama by the weekend (remember there won't be a significant number of people who have seen Obama's speech showing up in the samples until Saturday) but Gallup may end up showing him with a double-digit lead by that time.


by Davidsfr on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 02:14:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Up by 1 in Ras w/out leaners (none / 0)

Also, Rasmussen has four days of data while Gallup has three, so shifts take longer to affect the number in Rasmussen.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 02:42:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Good work! Want to see it above 50!! (2.00 / 1)


by activatedbybush on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 01:54:13 PM EST

Re: Obama Convention Bounce! (none / 0)

That's a nice bounce, and indicative of a much higher one-day bounce since Gallup is a rolling average.

Having said that, all that matters is state-by-state polling.


Two riders were approaching......the wind begins to howl!
by John in Chicago on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 02:13:01 PM EST

Re: Hillary Convention Bounce! (1.00 / 1)

Make no mistake this is the Clintons 3%

They gave your guy the election and in return got pretty much nothing but the chance to give ass kissing speeches.

Welcome to the future.


by dtaylor2 on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 02:38:45 PM EST

Re: Hillary Convention Bounce! (none / 0)

"They gave your guy the election and in return got pretty much nothing but the chance to give ass kissing speeches."

...and the fact that the Clinton Healthcare Bill of 2009 will be signed instead of vetoed.  Remember the reason why Clinton was running?


But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
by thezzyzx on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 03:03:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well for once (none / 0)

you're at least half right.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 03:32:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Got nothing? (none / 0)

The guy was President of the United States for 8 years! What the heck is he owed?


I attended PUMACon '08!!!
by iohs2008 on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 03:53:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Got nothing? (1.00 / 0)

She represents more than half the party.

Its what WE are owed that I am talking about.


by dtaylor2 on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 07:39:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You aren't owed anything (none / 0)

This isn't about you.


I attended PUMACon '08!!!
by iohs2008 on Tue Sep 02, 2008 at 01:46:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Convention Bounce! (none / 0)

Usually I caution about reading too much into a single one-day tracking poll, but I will become optimistic if the trend holds or even grows.


by Skaje on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 03:51:22 PM EST

Re: Obama Convention Bounce! (none / 0)

I think that if the Obama campaign has some campaigning next week and a robust surrogate operation in St. Paul, they'll be able to prevent much of a McCain bounce.

BTW, is there any reason to think that Romney or Pawlenty would produce a bounce?


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 04:11:33 PM EST

Maybe a point or two? (none / 0)

Pawlenty is a more popular choice elswhere than he is in Minnesota.  Remember, if he's VP, we get stuck with his idiot Lt. Governor, Molnou.


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 04:49:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Convention Bounce! (none / 0)

According to independent analises, this bounce reflects a 15% spread in ONE DAY.
do people still think we don't need to embrace PUMA's?
If these obvious Clinton loyalists stay here, we win in a landslide.

Obama is smart for embracing the Clintons, giving them 2 nights.
All those lies about a Michelle/Hillary or Bill/Barack war was not true.

The reason for some of the PUMA's was not that they didn't want party unity but rather they didn't believe there is any unity.
Now they know.


by rolnitzky on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 05:42:17 PM EST

Re: Obama Convention Bounce! (2.00 / 1)

Everything depends on the rapid response by the Democrats.  If history is any guide, the Republican convention will be 90% negative and 10% positive.  It's an opportunity to have Democrats standing by on all the major networks and counter-attacking.

IF they do it.  The one area the Obama operation was obviously outclassed in during the primaries was the quality of their surrogates.  I'd like to see that get ramped up a good degree.


by Ponderous on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 05:56:43 PM EST


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